We are living in an age of breathless excitement. Artificial Intelligence, we are told, is not just a new technology; it is a force that will reshape humanity, solve our greatest problems, and create unprecedented wealth. Fortunes are being made overnight. The fear of missing out is palpable. 

As an educator who is using AI to do thing in the classroom that could not be done before, I see the profound potential. But as a Dutch economic historian, I also hear a faint, familiar echo from centuries ago—the scent of tulips on the winter air.


A Lesson from the Golden Age

In the 1630s, the Netherlands was in the grip of "Tulip Mania." A simple flower bulb, newly introduced from the Ottoman Empire, became the world's most speculative asset. What is often forgotten that this was a consequence of a geo-political shift where the Dutch republic was able to through its significant trade weight around. Ambassador Cornelis Haga arrived in Istanbul on March 17, 1612, and secured a treaty on May 1 from Sultan Ahmed I, granting Dutch merchants extraterritorial rights, low customs (2-3% vs. 5% for others), freedom to trade/import bullion (except grain export), and protection from North African pirates. Trade in tulips was another offshoot of this treaty.

At the height of the tulip frenzy, a single bulb of a rare variety could be traded for the price of a grand Amsterdam townhouse. People sold their land, their businesses, and their futures to get in on the boom. It seemed like a new economic paradigm where prices could only go up.